Posts Tagged ‘san francisco real estate sales trends’

Heard on the Street: Brokers' Tour Recap

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

900 Clayton, San Francisco, California

Yesterday was Brokers’ Tour and the market in San Francisco’s more desirable districts appears very strong. The strongest seems to be Noe Valley/Castro/Upper Market and related areas. 900 Clayton asking $2,239,000 was first shown on Sunday’s open house and by last night had 2 offers and was ratified. The house has an interesting history. The sellers bought a new home and moved to Sonoma in 2008. This house went on the market the day Lehman Brothers fell apart and was quickly withdrawn. The sellers thereby waiting (to their benefit) to put it back on the market once the economy had regained its footing.

Today was the sales meeting at my office and agents reported heavy Sunday open house traffic throughout this district.  The inventory has gone up. Yesterday, there were at least 9 new homes in the $1.2million+ category. This should give buyers a selection of properties to see this coming weekend. And, we’ll measure the results.

I should have access to February’s statistics tomorrow and will post those but it seems things are pointing up at this stage.

I’ll keep you posted….

Lance

415-793-6140

San Francisco's Noe Valley Luxury Homes Show Demand with Multiple Offers

Monday, March 1st, 2010

418 Liberty Street, San Francisco

The house at 418 Liberty in the desirable Dolores Heights neighborhood hit the market at $2,395,000 and really needs a full interior remodel but due to the desirability of the location, views, overall size and relatively good condition, it garnered 5 offers (4 were all cash, I was told).

Noe Valley’s location, weather and overall desirability continue to push it to the top of the City’s list for home buyers. The buyers I’m encountering in the $2million+ price range are comprised of a majority of folks from out of the area. I would say North side families head the list followed by folks moving into San Francisco for the first time or returning.

If you’re not familiar with Noe Valley, check it out on Nabewise. com or better yet spend an afternoon along 24th Street or at one of the local parks. And if you’d like some first hand information, give me a call.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

Sunday Open House Attendance Poll: Print Advertising Appears Dead

Monday, March 1st, 2010

I polled all attendees to my open house today and the results are continuing to run fairly consistently: print advertising appears dead. I did have one person in two weeks say they saw the newspaper ad but the largest numbers are coming in with their agents or told by their agents (30%); online ads (25%); signs (25%); neighbors (10%) and then those invited by me (10%).

This continually speaks to how the public receives and uses information and where sellers should make sure they’re present. The old school history in me pulls me toward print but even when you pick up one of the free-bees like ‘The Real Estate Times of San Francisco’ it’s a ghost of what it was in its hey-day.

So the next time you’re searching for real estate, I know you’ll start ‘on-line’….just like me.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

The True Measure of a Home Buyer's 'Deal'

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

I recently met with a young couple who called on one of my listings. I met them one evening to show the house and heard their situation. They were out to look at ‘everything’ and were ‘on their own’ without an agent relying on what they could locate on the internet. They stated that their motivation was driven by the fact that the wife’s sister had bought a house in Marin for $800,000 below asking by representing herself and they wanted the same great ‘deal’.

465 Hoffman

My immediate thought regarding her sister’s great deal was that she actually paid ‘market’ rate or above but ‘thought’ she got a great deal. Let’s look at the facts as presented. If the house her sister had bought had been on the market for months and hadn’t sold and then the sister made what she ‘thought’ was a low ball offer and the seller took it – then the house actually sold for market. In many instances, several I know of here in San Francisco, specific homes that have been listed have dropped their respective prices by that much or more before they sold. If her sister bought it ‘off market’ she may actually have paid a couple hundred thousand more than the $1million off that should have occurred because it wasn’t market tested. 465 Hoffman in Noe Valley started out last year at $3.9million and was only lowered to $3million this month when it finally sold. Anyone who had made an offer while it was ‘off market’ over the Christmas holidays, let’s say at $3.4million, would have thought they’d made the ‘deal’ of a lifetime but actually paid $400,000 too much.

Secondly, the belief that you’ll get a better deal as a buyer by working with the listing agent runs counter to the actual mechanics of the transaction. Without your own ‘representation’, the seller will more than likely – in my 20 years of experience – take the same price that they would even if you had your own agent ( because remember the seller is tied to the sales price the majority of the time) and pocket the increase due to any reduced commission with the listing agent. The buyer has just lost their best resource, their own representative in the transaction. Would you do your own surgery? No, you’d rely on an expert with countless hours of experience, history in the field and connections within the industry. These are the intangibles that buyers often discount but can gain hugely from with the right agent (these provide good measuring sticks when looking for an agent of your own).

Just yesterday (see the previous) posting, I had called on the 15th Avenue house for my clients. The listing agent said that they had received 5 offers and were in counter and were going to make a decision the next day. I said that the house was still in play and I wanted to show my buyers that evening so they would be able to make an offer should they decide to move forward. Because I have experience with the listing agent, she agreed and understood that I was being an aggressive advocate for my buyers. She gave me some limited information on the situation however in discussing it with my business partner, Dan Marshall, we discovered he had been in conversation with an agent that was one of the five offers so then I had the complete picture for my buyers and now knew the counter price which was right on the nose for what I had told my buyers my best guess was at price, $900,000. This is an example of what a buyer can gain from the ‘intangibles’ of an experienced agent with countless hours of experience and connections within the industry.

418 Liberty, San Francisco

While the buyers were touring my listing describing how they were on their own and relying on whatever they could come up with on Google and wanted to see everything, these thoughts of connections and representation where going through my head. They had no idea – because they didn’t have their own tied in representative – that at that very moment a new listing was being launched within the neighborhood at an evening reception at 418 Liberty because it hadn’t formally been listed. 418 Liberty priced at $2.395million went into contract in less than a week so chances are they didn’t see it. Again, they lost out on knowing all the nuances of a neighborhood or area that don’t show up on the internet.

In closing, my best advice is to make sure you’ve accurately measured ‘the deal’ and make sure you have the best representation.

‘Til Next Time,

Lance

415-793-6140

Multiple Offer Wave Strengthens at Lower Price Range In San Francisco Bay Area

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

1862 15th Avenue

Multiple offers are back! Today a house at 1862 15th Avenue priced at $849,000 received 5 offers. 3 of the offers were countered at $900,000 and the seller accepted one from a buyer who offered to remove all contingencies within 5 days. The key to this deal was that the buyer is going through Wells Fargo for their loan and Wells Fargo is now offering a ‘rush’ appraisal for an extra $200 that sends the appraiser out on the weekend to look at the house. The appraiser in this instance is going out on Sunday to see the house.

I attended a regional meeting for Alain Pinel Realtors in Marin on Friday where the East Bay was discussed because in that market they’re receiving 15 to 20 offers on certain properties. In these instances, the listing agents are going back to the buyers with terms that compel the buyers to come up with more cash if the property doesn’t appraise.

Individual lenders are slowly dipping their toes back into market segments they had previously abandoned. Wells Fargo announced this week that they are back in the ‘Super Jumbo’ loan market in a big way. Previously ceding that market segment primarily to 1st Republic Bank, now Wells is muscling back in to take back what is probably the most profitable loan market to higher net worth individuals along with all the other ancillary services that go with those customers.

Lenders’ gradual loosening will support this market trend in a real estate market that overall has a shortage of inventory. As the economy slowly improves, so does the investor psyche and the appetite for risk. This is on top of a hoard of cash that has been accumulating over the last 18 months as folks sat on the sidelines waiting for a signal.

I have buyers in all price ranges up to $3million and I’m seeing the best properties fought over at every level.

I’ll keep you posted…with more to come.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

Off Market Sales "Gimick"…Is There Value for a Buyer?

Friday, February 26th, 2010

I recently met with two separate couples in the throes of the buying process. One had called me directly regarding a listing and another came into one of my open homes. Both cases were somewhat different, however in conversation both were in the process of interviewing agents. The one point they both independently brought up and wanted advice about was the ‘off market’ sales pitch they had heard from some other real estate agents they had spoken with.

Let’s look at the reality where ‘off market’ sales might occur. First, if the buyer has a very specific location in mind and would pay above current value and connect with ‘the’ agent who happens to have a client in that location. In this one scenario, you can see the two biggest variables…paying above market price and then through chance for most buyers finding the one agent who would have a connection in that location. Agents who promise off market deals may know of listings they have coming up but they don’t know ‘if’ or ‘how’ they will work for a specific buyer they just met.

The second case is one in which a seller is ‘in trouble’ and needs to sell and again the biggest variable is the specific agent or connection. Is the agent who’s promising you this ‘un-marketed’ inventory really going to deliver?

In a market such as San Francisco, where there is limited supply the sellers ‘always’ control the market. Yes, even now. I have spoken to sellers who had their homes on the market last year when the uncertainty was great enough that they wanted to sell. But last year, buyers for the most part weren’t biting (even though that was the time they should have). Now the economy has improved just enough that these folks are just ’sitting tight’..hence our current situation of lower than expected inventory.

It is human nature to want to believe we’re going to get in on the one deal that no one else will know about. The reality is, however, that situation won’t occur and its comparable to saving and becoming wealthy. It’s the consistent smart decisions with trustworthy advisors that get you to the finish line. One of my favorite lines comes from ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ where the author says the two advisors he pays without question are his real estate agent and his attorney because they both make him many more times than they cost. And therein lies the hollowness of the ‘hook’ of ‘off market sales’, the real deals will go to those agents’ best and most loyal clients first. They won’t go to someone they just met.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

San Franciscso Sunday Open Home Attendance Poll Results

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

The Living Room of 622 27th Street

Sunday I was holding my listing at 622 27th Street open between 1pm and 4pm while a steady rain covered the City and the attendance was brisk…to my surprise. This home is listed at $2.229million and is a gorgeous example of contemporary architecture with downtown views. In fact, every Sunday for the last 6 that I’ve been open have all be very well attended. Today with attendance high despite the rain I was convinced I was seeing a strong market in action.

The Kitchen at 70 Valley Street

My business partner, Dan Marshall, was at our new listing at 70 Valley Street, a newly completed townhouse listed at $1.25million. He reported high attendance as well. He also told me he spoke to a woman who said she was looking for a home between $1.5million and $2million and that she couldn’t find anything. That price point has become the real sweet spot in Noe Valley/Eureka Valley and throughout most of the popular South-Central neighborhoods. Multiple offers are entering our real estate jargon again more and more regularly.

Today, Sunday, I conducted a poll of attendees on how they found my open house. The largest percentage, 40%, came in off of the signs I had placed in the neighborhood. The next highest number, 25%, were from the internet. So the two least expensive means of advertising brought in the highest number of attendees. As for quality of attendees, I’m sure the internet will be the winner. We have one of those circling the property at the moment so we’ll see how it ends up. I’ll keep you posted.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140