Archive for February, 2010

The True Measure of a Home Buyer's 'Deal'

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

I recently met with a young couple who called on one of my listings. I met them one evening to show the house and heard their situation. They were out to look at ‘everything’ and were ‘on their own’ without an agent relying on what they could locate on the internet. They stated that their motivation was driven by the fact that the wife’s sister had bought a house in Marin for $800,000 below asking by representing herself and they wanted the same great ‘deal’.

465 Hoffman

My immediate thought regarding her sister’s great deal was that she actually paid ‘market’ rate or above but ‘thought’ she got a great deal. Let’s look at the facts as presented. If the house her sister had bought had been on the market for months and hadn’t sold and then the sister made what she ‘thought’ was a low ball offer and the seller took it – then the house actually sold for market. In many instances, several I know of here in San Francisco, specific homes that have been listed have dropped their respective prices by that much or more before they sold. If her sister bought it ‘off market’ she may actually have paid a couple hundred thousand more than the $1million off that should have occurred because it wasn’t market tested. 465 Hoffman in Noe Valley started out last year at $3.9million and was only lowered to $3million this month when it finally sold. Anyone who had made an offer while it was ‘off market’ over the Christmas holidays, let’s say at $3.4million, would have thought they’d made the ‘deal’ of a lifetime but actually paid $400,000 too much.

Secondly, the belief that you’ll get a better deal as a buyer by working with the listing agent runs counter to the actual mechanics of the transaction. Without your own ‘representation’, the seller will more than likely – in my 20 years of experience – take the same price that they would even if you had your own agent ( because remember the seller is tied to the sales price the majority of the time) and pocket the increase due to any reduced commission with the listing agent. The buyer has just lost their best resource, their own representative in the transaction. Would you do your own surgery? No, you’d rely on an expert with countless hours of experience, history in the field and connections within the industry. These are the intangibles that buyers often discount but can gain hugely from with the right agent (these provide good measuring sticks when looking for an agent of your own).

Just yesterday (see the previous) posting, I had called on the 15th Avenue house for my clients. The listing agent said that they had received 5 offers and were in counter and were going to make a decision the next day. I said that the house was still in play and I wanted to show my buyers that evening so they would be able to make an offer should they decide to move forward. Because I have experience with the listing agent, she agreed and understood that I was being an aggressive advocate for my buyers. She gave me some limited information on the situation however in discussing it with my business partner, Dan Marshall, we discovered he had been in conversation with an agent that was one of the five offers so then I had the complete picture for my buyers and now knew the counter price which was right on the nose for what I had told my buyers my best guess was at price, $900,000. This is an example of what a buyer can gain from the ‘intangibles’ of an experienced agent with countless hours of experience and connections within the industry.

418 Liberty, San Francisco

While the buyers were touring my listing describing how they were on their own and relying on whatever they could come up with on Google and wanted to see everything, these thoughts of connections and representation where going through my head. They had no idea – because they didn’t have their own tied in representative – that at that very moment a new listing was being launched within the neighborhood at an evening reception at 418 Liberty because it hadn’t formally been listed. 418 Liberty priced at $2.395million went into contract in less than a week so chances are they didn’t see it. Again, they lost out on knowing all the nuances of a neighborhood or area that don’t show up on the internet.

In closing, my best advice is to make sure you’ve accurately measured ‘the deal’ and make sure you have the best representation.

‘Til Next Time,

Lance

415-793-6140

Multiple Offer Wave Strengthens at Lower Price Range In San Francisco Bay Area

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

1862 15th Avenue

Multiple offers are back! Today a house at 1862 15th Avenue priced at $849,000 received 5 offers. 3 of the offers were countered at $900,000 and the seller accepted one from a buyer who offered to remove all contingencies within 5 days. The key to this deal was that the buyer is going through Wells Fargo for their loan and Wells Fargo is now offering a ‘rush’ appraisal for an extra $200 that sends the appraiser out on the weekend to look at the house. The appraiser in this instance is going out on Sunday to see the house.

I attended a regional meeting for Alain Pinel Realtors in Marin on Friday where the East Bay was discussed because in that market they’re receiving 15 to 20 offers on certain properties. In these instances, the listing agents are going back to the buyers with terms that compel the buyers to come up with more cash if the property doesn’t appraise.

Individual lenders are slowly dipping their toes back into market segments they had previously abandoned. Wells Fargo announced this week that they are back in the ‘Super Jumbo’ loan market in a big way. Previously ceding that market segment primarily to 1st Republic Bank, now Wells is muscling back in to take back what is probably the most profitable loan market to higher net worth individuals along with all the other ancillary services that go with those customers.

Lenders’ gradual loosening will support this market trend in a real estate market that overall has a shortage of inventory. As the economy slowly improves, so does the investor psyche and the appetite for risk. This is on top of a hoard of cash that has been accumulating over the last 18 months as folks sat on the sidelines waiting for a signal.

I have buyers in all price ranges up to $3million and I’m seeing the best properties fought over at every level.

I’ll keep you posted…with more to come.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

Off Market Sales "Gimick"…Is There Value for a Buyer?

Friday, February 26th, 2010

I recently met with two separate couples in the throes of the buying process. One had called me directly regarding a listing and another came into one of my open homes. Both cases were somewhat different, however in conversation both were in the process of interviewing agents. The one point they both independently brought up and wanted advice about was the ‘off market’ sales pitch they had heard from some other real estate agents they had spoken with.

Let’s look at the reality where ‘off market’ sales might occur. First, if the buyer has a very specific location in mind and would pay above current value and connect with ‘the’ agent who happens to have a client in that location. In this one scenario, you can see the two biggest variables…paying above market price and then through chance for most buyers finding the one agent who would have a connection in that location. Agents who promise off market deals may know of listings they have coming up but they don’t know ‘if’ or ‘how’ they will work for a specific buyer they just met.

The second case is one in which a seller is ‘in trouble’ and needs to sell and again the biggest variable is the specific agent or connection. Is the agent who’s promising you this ‘un-marketed’ inventory really going to deliver?

In a market such as San Francisco, where there is limited supply the sellers ‘always’ control the market. Yes, even now. I have spoken to sellers who had their homes on the market last year when the uncertainty was great enough that they wanted to sell. But last year, buyers for the most part weren’t biting (even though that was the time they should have). Now the economy has improved just enough that these folks are just ’sitting tight’..hence our current situation of lower than expected inventory.

It is human nature to want to believe we’re going to get in on the one deal that no one else will know about. The reality is, however, that situation won’t occur and its comparable to saving and becoming wealthy. It’s the consistent smart decisions with trustworthy advisors that get you to the finish line. One of my favorite lines comes from ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ where the author says the two advisors he pays without question are his real estate agent and his attorney because they both make him many more times than they cost. And therein lies the hollowness of the ‘hook’ of ‘off market sales’, the real deals will go to those agents’ best and most loyal clients first. They won’t go to someone they just met.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

San Francisco's Luxury Mid-Century Neighborhood Soon Will Have Numerous Listings

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSemV5HOz0E]

The iconic San Francisco neighborhood at the very, very top of Clarendon Heights built in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s with street names like St. Germain Avenue, Mt. Spring Avenue and Palo Alto Avenue with panoramic bridge-to-bridge views and made famous in the 1962 film, Experiment in Terror, one of the first ’stalker’ films staring Lee Remick who’s character lived at 100 St. Germain Avenue will soon have a number of new listings hit the market practically all at once.

50 Palo Alto Avenue, San Francisco, California

My source tells me that both houses at #20 and #30 Palo Alto will be coming on the market as well as two other homes in the neighborhood. And the price range of the homes will be between $2.8million to over $4million. The most recent sales were two homes that sold in December. #50 Palo Alto was remodeled and asked $1.75mil and sold for over $1.87mil. And a custom 1950’s home belonging to the former owner of Hearth Real Estate on Castro Street was asking $1.595mil and sold for $1.7mil.

166 Palo Alto Avenue, San Francisco, California

The new prices are a far cry from those ‘bargins’. And with such an increase in supply, we’ll see what the overall effect will be. Is it just a Spring market increase or are some residents needing to ‘readjust their financial position’ in light of the ‘new reality’? Only time will tell. But, I’ll keep you posted.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

San Franciscso Sunday Open Home Attendance Poll Results

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

The Living Room of 622 27th Street

Sunday I was holding my listing at 622 27th Street open between 1pm and 4pm while a steady rain covered the City and the attendance was brisk…to my surprise. This home is listed at $2.229million and is a gorgeous example of contemporary architecture with downtown views. In fact, every Sunday for the last 6 that I’ve been open have all be very well attended. Today with attendance high despite the rain I was convinced I was seeing a strong market in action.

The Kitchen at 70 Valley Street

My business partner, Dan Marshall, was at our new listing at 70 Valley Street, a newly completed townhouse listed at $1.25million. He reported high attendance as well. He also told me he spoke to a woman who said she was looking for a home between $1.5million and $2million and that she couldn’t find anything. That price point has become the real sweet spot in Noe Valley/Eureka Valley and throughout most of the popular South-Central neighborhoods. Multiple offers are entering our real estate jargon again more and more regularly.

Today, Sunday, I conducted a poll of attendees on how they found my open house. The largest percentage, 40%, came in off of the signs I had placed in the neighborhood. The next highest number, 25%, were from the internet. So the two least expensive means of advertising brought in the highest number of attendees. As for quality of attendees, I’m sure the internet will be the winner. We have one of those circling the property at the moment so we’ll see how it ends up. I’ll keep you posted.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

Pacific Heights Condo and Coop Statistics Show Increasing Inventory

Saturday, February 20th, 2010

Pacific Heights Condo and Coop Inventory and Sales $1.5mil-$3.5mil

The trend seems to be ‘up’ where inventory is concerned in Pacific Heights condo and coop inventory between $1.5million and $3.5million. The same can’t be said for sales ‘yet’. The trend line in the number of sales seems to be flat through January. The February numbers will give us a good barometer has to where we may be going with this class of inventory.

Have any news related to Pacific Heights condos or coops? Drop me a line.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

San Francisco Neighborhood Communities Shine for Residents and Relocation Candidates

Saturday, February 20th, 2010

Jaynelle's Noe Valley Neighborhood Valentines' Pie Giveaway

I met a neighbor at my Brokers’ Open on Tuesday while in Noe Valley at 70 Valley Street. Her name is Jaynelle. She exemplifies what San Franciscans love about their neighborhoods … that sense of community. Jaynelle made homemade pies and gave away slices as neighbors and visitors walked by last Sunday on Valentines Day. What a treat. I would say ’she’ is one of our San Francisco Valentines. Wouldn’t you agree?

This re-iterates my first piece of advice to clients moving here from other places. Step 1: Pick your neighborhood. I advise them to take the time to hang out and go to dinner, shop, have coffee. Just see which areas feel the best. Many times, they choose to rent for a year before buying. I have clients who are currently renting on Russian Hill and love it but are also exploring other neighborhoods. If you’re just moving to our City or considering it then check out www.nabewise.com for a key to our neighborhoods. Then visit the ones that appeal to you the most.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

Appraisal Becomes the Achilles Heel of the Deal

Friday, February 19th, 2010

New government mandated appraisal rules went into effect earlier this year and have quickly spread to becoming the biggest vulnerability of any transaction if not ‘managed’. The government now forces the banks to put all their approved appraisers in a pool and when your loan application comes up the draw one randomly out of the bin. Sounds simple enough ….unless you’re buying in San Francisco and your appraiser is from Modesto and has never been to San Francisco. Can you see the issues now?!

So, here’s the management techniques. Once you go into contract on a home if there is a lockbox on it the listing agent should take it off immediately to limit access. Secondly, when the appraiser calls to make the appointment with the buyers agent or the listing agent the appraiser will request a date and time. AT THAT POINT, the agent should say ‘well, I don’t know if I have that available. By the way, where are you from? Where’s your area of specialty?’. Once the appointment has been booked …YOU”RE STUCK with that appraiser. However, if there is no appointment made then a request for a new name can be made with the lender. This should be done until an appraiser with expertise in your location is booked.

At the appointment, the agent meeting the appraiser should show up with comps for the appraiser and HAND THEM TO THE APPRAISER.

These steps are key and could save your transaction. My good friend, Tawni, is going through ‘hell’ just to get a refinance due to appraiser hi-jinks with her lender. Even in a refi situation, the consumer needs to know the management techniques to keep their loan from going ‘South’.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

Heard on the Street: Brokers' Tour Recap

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

1100 Union Street, San Francisco

The big news this weeks is the ever shrinking inventory level for the City. I had read that the 21st Century will be the ‘Urban Century’ and that may very well pull us out of any economic deficiencies much earlier than other areas. Unit 400 at 1100 Union, the posh coop on Russian Hill, went into contract last night for what I was told was $1,995,000 – just shy of asking price.

70 Valley Street, San Francisco

There have been a number of homes in District 5 (Noe Valley, et. al.) in the $2mil range that have gone under contract in the past week and more buyers are circling. My listing at 70 Valley Street, the newly completed Noe Valley townhouse was swamped with lookers last Sunday and on Brokers’ Tour, is being shown as I type this and I’ve been told there is another party close to writing a contract.

We received a contract on our listing at 366 Sanchez which will be presented tonight.

1793 Sanchez, San Francisco

And, we have a new listing at 1793 Sanchez coming on the market next Tuesday. It is a Victorian home with legal one-bedroom apartment for $1,250,000.

We have a chic Russian Hill coop with views of Alcatraz pocket listing. And, we have a couple of single family homes which will be coming on the market soon in Noe Valley.

Call me if you’re considering making a change. I just spoke with a client today who is planning to take advantage of the low inventory situation and sell.  And we’re working with another who is making the decision to rent. There’s lots of movement out there so make sure you’re armed with all the information prior to making a decision.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140

Noe Valley Luxury Home Market Strengthens

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Days-on-Market and Percentage of Sales Price to Asking

Average Sales Price per Square Foot

The statistics for the 13 months ending in January show the luxury home market strengthening in Noe Valley. Days on market are down and the sales price to asking is up. The average price-per-square-foot has been holding steady so we’ll have to see what trend emerges when the numbers come out for February but from what I’m seeing on the street things are ‘holding their own’ currently. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a bit of an uptick in the price-per-square-foot based on the falling days on market.

I’ll keep you posted.

All the Best,

Lance

415-793-6140