4 Demographic Trends to Watch in the New Decade

We’re entering the ‘urban century’ according to a recently released research paper by John K. McIlwain of the Urban Land Institute. He says there are 4 trends to watch in the new decade:

1. Aging baby boomers (55-64 year olds) will not choose traditional retirement locations opting for more mixed-age living environments that cater to their active life styles. Suburban town centers with a walkable urban ‘feel’ will appeal to this group.

2. Younger baby boomers (46-54 year olds) will be drawn to more connected, compactly designed communities when they are able to switch houses.

3. Generation Y – a tech-savvy generation with a population of about 86 million, more than the baby boomers. Gen Y’ers place high value on community. They will gravitate toward walkable, close-in communities. Green, ‘net zero’ homes powered exclusively by alternative energy will have strong appeal to this group.

4. Immigrants – Already 40 million strong, the total population of legal and illegal immigrants in the U.S. has an even greater impact when their children and grandchildren are included. They tend to cluster in multi-generational households in neighborhoods with a strong sense of community.

All of these groups have some characteristics that reflect a desire to live in more pedestrian-friendly, transit-oriented, mixed-use environments that de-emphasize auto dependency, whether the location is urban or suburban, McIlwain noted. Among factors driving urbanization: 1) growth of two-person households and single households without children (among both baby boomers and Gen Y); 2) a halt to baby boomer migration to the suburbs; 3) the likelihood of Gen Y to rent rather than own; and 4) public policies encouraging compact development.

All of these trends are good news for our City and re-affirm the message delivered by Michael  P. Buckley, Director, Columbia Center for High Density Development at the meeting I attended at the United Nations and reported on in an earlier posting. I believe we can already see this ‘on the street’ here in San Francisco with families choosing to stay in the City rather than move to the suburbs. It is also re-enforced by what I call an ‘evening out’ of the suburban schools with urban schools. No longer is it a ‘given’ that the public schools are better in the suburbs. Parents have decided to commit time, energy and money to their child’s public school in the City thereby creating a hybrid ‘public-private’ partnership for individual schools in San Francisco. One public elementary school in San Francisco raised approximately $200,000 to supplement its budget.

Other forces are also at work, the social media trend creates a conversation on every level (even here with your comments) bringing people together and this is reflected in culture with the desire to live in closer contact; energy prices; and, I believe insecurity in general terms (read as ‘terrorist threats’ ) tends to make individuals value home and community more.

I’m interested in hearing your comments as well. Drop me line.

All the Best,

Lance